The Ranker is Better Than ESPN — Feb 14 update

~ gotstremph ~ Leave a comment

I’ve thought highly of The Ranker’s NCAA Basketball picks against the spread, and I’ve been itching to compare they’re accuracy against the predictions from other computer models.

I’m not the quickest draw when it comes to scraping the web for data, but I’ve begun comparing The Ranker’s predictions with those from ESPN’s BPI predictions.

I can only compare the picks for games that The Ranker made picks for.  I’m comparing all of The Ranker’s picks, as well as the subset of her picks that she was most confident about.

So far, The Ranker has done as well or better than ESPN’s BPI at picking against the spread on 10 out of 12 days.  Good job, Ranker!

All Games   High-Confidence Games
Date Number Correct Out of   Date Number Correct Out of
BPI TRP   BPI TRP
2/2 17 16 29 2/2 5 5 6
2/3 3 4 9 2/3 0 1 2
2/4 51 61 111 2/4 9 12 18
2/5 4 6 7 2/5 1 1 1
2/6 8 7 12 2/6 2 2 3
2/7 12 12 28 2/7 1 1 2
2/8 20 21 33 2/8 6 5 6
2/9 21 28 50 2/9 3 4 5
2/10 3 7 10 2/10 0 2 4
2/11 47 45 106 2/11 11 9 21
2/12 4 4 13 2/12 0 0 2
2/13 7 8 15 2/13 0 2 3
Total 197 219 423   Total 38 44 73
% Correct 47% 52%     % Correct 52% 60%  

 

Most Over/Under-rated Teams 2-13-17

~ gotstremph ~ Leave a comment

OVERRATED

According to the rankings in the AP Poll, the Ranker says the following teams are overrated (in order of overratedness):

Team AP Rank TRP Rank
Maryland 23 55
Southern California 29 54
Kansas 3 19
Arizona 5 21
Baylor 4 17
Villanova 2 9
Oregon 7 13

UNDERRATED

According to the rankings in the AP Poll, the Ranker says the following teams are underrated (in order of underratedness):

Team AP Rank TRP Rank
Wichita St. 26 8
Oklahoma St. 34 23
Kentucky 13 4
Virginia 14 5
Florida 15 7
West Virginia 9 2
Cincinnati 18 11

The Ranker is Better Than ESPN — Feb 12 update

~ gotstremph ~ Leave a comment

I’ve thought highly of the Ranker’s NCAA Basketball picks against the spread, and I’ve been itching to compare they’re accuracy against the predictions from other computer models.

I’m not the quickest draw when it comes to scraping the web for data, but I’ve begun comparing the Ranker’s predictions with those from ESPN’s BPI predictions.

I can only compare the picks for games that the Ranker made picks for.  I’m comparing all of the Ranker’s picks, as well as the subset of her picks that she was most confident about.

So far…good job, Ranker!

All Games   High-Confidence Games
Date Number Correct Out of   Date Number Correct Out of
BPI TRP   BPI TRP
2/2 17 16 29 2/2 5 5 6
2/3 3 4 9 2/3 0 1 2
2/4 51 61 111 2/4 9 12 18
2/5 4 6 7 2/5 1 1 1
2/6 8 7 12 2/6 2 2 3
2/7 12 12 28 2/7 1 1 2
2/8 20 21 33 2/8 6 5 6
2/9 21 28 50 2/9 3 4 5
2/10 3 7 10 2/10 0 2 4
2/11 47 45 106 2/11 11 9 21
Total 186 207 395   Total 38 42 68
% Correct 47% 52%     % Correct 56% 62%  

Picks 2-11-2017

~ gotstremph ~ Leave a comment

Here’s are today’s picks that the Ranker has most confidence in:

  • Seton Hall -1 (@ St. John’s)
  • Syracuse -1 (@ Pittsburgh)
  • Texas Tech +5 (vs Kansas)
  • Charleston +1.5 (@ William & Mary)
  • Xavier +5 (vs Villanova)
  • Massachusetts +2.5 (@ Saint Joseph’s)
  • UIC -1 (vs Cleveland State)
  • UNC Wilmington -5 (@ Elon)
  • South Alabama +1 (@La. Monroe)
  • Tennessee State +1.5 (@ Jacksonville State)
  • Texas State -2 (vs Ark-Little Rock)
  • Morehead State -3.5 (@ Eastern Kentucky)
  • Siena -6.5 (@ Marist)
  • Duquesne Pick (@ Saint Louis)
  • Gonzaga -4 (@ St. Mary’s)
  • Belmont -10 (@ Tennessee Tech)
  • Wyoming +3 (@ Utah State)
  • California +7.5 (@ Arizona)
  • Cal St Fullerton +1.5 (vs Long Beach State)
  • Hawaii +4 (vs UC Irvine)

The Ranker is Better Than ESPN — Feb 10 update

~ gotstremph ~ Leave a comment

I’ve thought highly of the Ranker’s NCAA Basketball picks against the spread, and I’ve been itching to compare they’re accuracy against the predictions from other computer models.

I’m not the quickest draw when it comes to scraping the web for data, but I’ve begun comparing the Ranker’s predictions with those from ESPN’s BPI predictions.

I can only compare the picks for games that the Ranker made picks for.  I’m comparing all of the Ranker’s picks, as well as the subset of her picks that she was most confident about.

So far…good job, Ranker!

All Games   High-Confidence Games
Date Number Correct Out of   Date Number Correct Out of
BPI TRP   BPI TRP
2/2 17 16 29 2/2 5 5 6
2/3 3 4 9 2/3 0 1 2
2/4 51 61 111 2/4 9 12 18
2/5 4 6 7 2/5 1 1 1
2/6 8 7 12 2/6 2 2 3
2/7 12 12 28 2/7 1 1 2
2/8 20 21 33 2/8 6 5 6
2/9 21 28 50 2/9 3 4 5
2/10 3 7 10 2/10 0 2 4
Total 139 162 289   Total 27 33 47
% Correct 48% 56%     % Correct 57% 70%  

Most Over/Under-rated Teams 2-9-17

~ gotstremph ~ Leave a comment

OVERRATED

According to the rankings in the AP Poll, the Ranker says the following teams are overrated (in order of overratedness):

  • Maryland -Big time!!!  AP rank: 21, but the Ranker says they’re barely in the top 60
  • USC – Technically 27th in the AP, but 53rd according to the Ranker
  • Kansas
  • Baylor
  • Arizona
  • Xavier
  • Oregon

UNDERRATED

According to the rankings in the AP Poll, the Ranker says the following teams are underrated (in order of underratedness):

  • Wichita State – 26th in the AP, but 12th according to the Ranker
  • Oklahoma State
  • West Virginia
  • Kentucky
  • Florida
  • Virginia