The Ranker’s Prediction Accuracy

(as of 3/10//17)

Performance Against the Spread (NCAA Basketball)

All 2016-2017 games:  1461-1316, 52.6%

High-confidence games:  293-203, 59.1%

Use the Ranker’s Team Ratings to Predict Scoring Margin

The Ranker’s team ratings are designed to predict the outcome of games.  The difference between two team’s ratings (after giving the home team’s rating a little boost) is the Ranker’s predicted scoring margin in the game.

I’ve trained the Ranker to identify games where she feels especially confident in her prediction, and there is significant difference in the accuracy of those predictions.

Measure Accuracy Against the Spread

I’ve tracked the Ranker’s picks since 12/9/16.  I used the point spreads published on to pick against, so measuring the accuracy of the Ranker’s predictions is limited to those games.

Performance by Month

I found an error in my that impacted my March picks.  To be fair, I could not include performance for March.

Month All Games High-Confidence Games
# Correct Out Of % Accuracy # Correct Out Of % Accuracy
December 266 507 52.5% 45 66 68.2%
January 536 1000 53.6% 146 227 64.3%
February 488 941 51.9% 86 160 53.8%