The Ranker is Better Than ESPN — Mar 11 update

I’v compared The Ranker’s predictions with those from ESPN’s BPI predictions.  I started tracking the comparison on February 2nd.  I noticed an error in my March calculations, so this comparison is limited to February’s games.  I will have to go back and re-run the numbers for March to continue the appropriate comparison.

I can only compare the picks for games that The Ranker made picks for.  I use teamrankings.com to get my point spreads, so my picks are limited to the games that are posted there.

I am quite pleased with The Ranker’s performance against ESPN’s BPI predictions.  The Ranker performed as well or better than ESPN’s BPI at picking against the spread on 16 out of 24 days.  Good job, Ranker!

All Games   High-Confidence Games
Date Number Correct Out of   Date Number Correct Out of
BPI TRP   BPI TRP
2/2 17 16 29 2/2 5 5 6
2/3 3 4 9 2/3 0 1 2
2/4 51 61 111 2/4 9 12 18
2/5 4 6 7 2/5 1 1 1
2/6 8 7 12 2/6 2 2 3
2/7 12 12 28 2/7 1 1 2
2/8 20 21 33 2/8 6 5 6
2/9 21 28 50 2/9 3 4 5
2/10 3 7 10 2/10 0 2 4
2/11 47 45 106 2/11 11 9 21
2/12 4 4 13 2/12 0 0 2
2/13 7 8 15 2/13 0 2 3
2/14 18 16 27 2/14 2 2 3
2/15 19 18 34 2/15 1 0 1
2/16 20 19 38 2/16 1 3 5
2/17 4 7 14 2/17 1 2 6
2/20 4 4 8 2/20 0 0 0
2/21 14 13 29 2/21 3 4 10
2/22 11 16 37 2/22 2 5 9
2/23 19 24 42 2/23 4 2 6
2/24 7 10 16 2/24 2 6 7
2/25 42 46 96 2/25 11 12 25
2/27 13 9 18 2/27 3 3 4
2/28 8 13 23 2/28 3 3 5

3 thoughts on “The Ranker is Better Than ESPN — Mar 11 update

  1. First–are you on twitter. Second–love the site. Third–thanks for having ETSU an 11 seed but don’t see that happening. What am I missing. We are their flagship station is the reason for my interest.

    1. Hey, Bobby! Thank you for your comment and kind words! I am on twitter (@bracketninja), but my account has been dormant for two years. I’m planning on a return tonight to share tips and facts. I’m afraid I agree with you. Unfortunately I don’t see the selection committee giving ETSU an 11 seed. My projection is based (maybe too much) on my computer ratings. The ratings are based on some adjusted statistical ratings I created for a few key team stats, and ETSU scores really well on some of the more important ones. They are in the top 25% in pts scored and pts allowed and top 10% in FG% and creating turnovers. I’m worried that my rating methodology may need a bit of an adjustment for strength of schedule. That’s something I’ll be exploring in the offseason. I’ll definitely be rooting for ETSU next week! Thanks, again, for your comment!

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