Month: March 2017

The Ranker is Better Than ESPN — Mar 11 update

~ Michael Erwin ~ 3 Comments

I’v compared The Ranker’s predictions with those from ESPN’s BPI predictions.  I started tracking the comparison on February 2nd.  I noticed an error in my March calculations, so this comparison is limited to February’s games.  I will have to go back and re-run the numbers for March to continue the appropriate comparison.

I can only compare the picks for games that The Ranker made picks for.  I use teamrankings.com to get my point spreads, so my picks are limited to the games that are posted there.

I am quite pleased with The Ranker’s performance against ESPN’s BPI predictions.  The Ranker performed as well or better than ESPN’s BPI at picking against the spread on 16 out of 24 days.  Good job, Ranker!

All Games   High-Confidence Games
Date Number Correct Out of   Date Number Correct Out of
BPI TRP   BPI TRP
2/2 17 16 29 2/2 5 5 6
2/3 3 4 9 2/3 0 1 2
2/4 51 61 111 2/4 9 12 18
2/5 4 6 7 2/5 1 1 1
2/6 8 7 12 2/6 2 2 3
2/7 12 12 28 2/7 1 1 2
2/8 20 21 33 2/8 6 5 6
2/9 21 28 50 2/9 3 4 5
2/10 3 7 10 2/10 0 2 4
2/11 47 45 106 2/11 11 9 21
2/12 4 4 13 2/12 0 0 2
2/13 7 8 15 2/13 0 2 3
2/14 18 16 27 2/14 2 2 3
2/15 19 18 34 2/15 1 0 1
2/16 20 19 38 2/16 1 3 5
2/17 4 7 14 2/17 1 2 6
2/20 4 4 8 2/20 0 0 0
2/21 14 13 29 2/21 3 4 10
2/22 11 16 37 2/22 2 5 9
2/23 19 24 42 2/23 4 2 6
2/24 7 10 16 2/24 2 6 7
2/25 42 46 96 2/25 11 12 25
2/27 13 9 18 2/27 3 3 4
2/28 8 13 23 2/28 3 3 5

The Ranker is Better Than ESPN — Mar 3 update

~ Michael Erwin ~ Leave a comment

I’ve thought highly of The Ranker’s NCAA Basketball picks against the spread, and I’ve been itching to compare they’re accuracy against the predictions from other computer models.

I’m not the quickest draw when it comes to scraping the web for data, but I’ve begun comparing The Ranker’s predictions with those from ESPN’s BPI predictions.

I can only compare the picks for games that The Ranker made picks for.  I’m comparing all of The Ranker’s picks, as well as the subset of her picks that she was most confident about.

So far, The Ranker has done as well or better than ESPN’s BPI at picking against the spread on 18 out of 26 days.  Good job, Ranker!

All Games     High-Confidence Games
  Number Correct Out of     Number Correct Out of
ESPN Ranker   ESPN Ranker
Total 405 445 878 Total 75 90 162
% Correct 46% 51% % Correct 46% 56%

 

Picks 3-3-2017

~ Michael Erwin ~ Leave a comment

I have identified several conditions that when they are met, The Ranker’s picks are significantly more accurate.

Yesterday, the Ranker was 2-1.  Unfortunately, yesterday’s picks didn’t get posted online.  Here are today’s picks that The Ranker has most confidence in:

  • Evansville +10.5 (@ Illinois State)
  • Milwaukee +1.5 (@ Detroit)
  • Central Michigan +10.5 (@ Western Michigan)
  • Niagra +13.5 (@Monmouth)
  • Missouri State +2.5 (@Northern Iowa)
  • Murray State +3 (@UT Martin)

Also, there are certain teams whose games The Ranker picks especially well (at least 70% correctly).  Four of those teams play tonight.  The teams for which The Ranker is particularly tuned in are in bold:

  • Yale -10 (vs Cornell)

Picks 3-1-2017

~ Michael Erwin ~ Leave a comment

I have identified several conditions that when they are met, The Ranker’s picks are significantly more accurate.

After a necessary hiatus for re-training, The Ranker is ready to make picks again.  Here are today’s picks that The Ranker has most confidence in:

  • Michigan +1 (@ Northwestern)
  • Vermont -24.5 (vs Maine)
  • Massachusetts +2.5 (vs Richmond)
  • Air Force +13.5 (@San Diego State)

Also, there are certain teams whose games The Ranker picks especially well (at least 70% correctly).  Four of those teams play tonight.  The teams for which The Ranker is particularly tuned in are in bold:

  • USC -12 (vs Washington State)