The Ranker is Better Than ESPN — Feb 18 update

I’ve thought highly of The Ranker’s NCAA Basketball picks against the spread, and I’ve been itching to compare they’re accuracy against the predictions from other computer models.

I’m not the quickest draw when it comes to scraping the web for data, but I’ve begun comparing The Ranker’s predictions with those from ESPN’s BPI predictions.

I can only compare the picks for games that The Ranker made picks for.  I’m comparing all of The Ranker’s picks, as well as the subset of her picks that she was most confident about.

So far, The Ranker has done as well or better than ESPN’s BPI at picking against the spread on 10 out of 16 days.  Good job, Ranker!

All Games     High-Confidence Games
  Number Correct Out of     Number Correct Out of
BPI TRP   BPI TRP
Total 258 279 536 Total 43 51 88
% Correct 48% 52% % Correct 49% 58%

 

Picks 2-17-2017

I have identified several conditions that when they are met, The Ranker’s picks are significantly more accurate.  Here are today’s picks that The Ranker has most confidence in:

  • Cornell +1.5 (@ Dartmouth)
  • Ill.-Chicago +1 (@ Detroit)
  • Valparaiso +1.5 (@ Oakland)
  • Yale +3 (vs Princeton)
  • Quinnipiac +1 (vs Fairfield)
  • California -2.5 (@ Stanford)

Also, there are certain teams whose games The Ranker picks especially well (at least 70% correctly).  Four of those teams play tonight.  The teams for which The Ranker is particularly tuned in are in bold:

  • Ill.-Chicago +1 (@ Detroit)
  • Harvard -8 (vs Columbia)
  • Quinnipiac +1 (vs Fairfield)
  • California -2.5 (@ Stanford)

Picks 2-16-2017

I have identified several conditions that when they are met, The Ranker’s picks are significantly more accurate.  Here are today’s picks that The Ranker has most confidence in:

  • Charleston +1 (@ Hofstra)
  • Northern Kentucky Pick (@ Cleveland State)
  • Gonzaga -21.5 (vs San Francisco)
  • UC Davis +3.5 (@ Long Beach State)
  • UC Riverside Pick (vs Cal St. Fullerton)

Also, I’ve just noticed that there are certain teams whose games The Ranker picks especially well (at least 70% correctly).  Five of those teams play tonight.  The teams for which The Ranker has an uncanny sense for are in bold:

  • Texas A&M +3.5 (@ Vanderbilt)
  • Wright State -5 (@ Youngstown State)
  • Gonzaga -21.5 (vs San Francisco)
  • Northern Colorado +13 (@ Weber State)
  • Hawaii -5.5 (@ UC Santa Barbara)

The Ranker is Better Than ESPN — Feb 16 update

I’ve thought highly of The Ranker’s NCAA Basketball picks against the spread, and I’ve been itching to compare they’re accuracy against the predictions from other computer models.

I’m not the quickest draw when it comes to scraping the web for data, but I’ve begun comparing The Ranker’s predictions with those from ESPN’s BPI predictions.

I can only compare the picks for games that The Ranker made picks for.  I’m comparing all of The Ranker’s picks, as well as the subset of her picks that she was most confident about.

So far, The Ranker has done as well or better than ESPN’s BPI at picking against the spread on 9 out of 14 days.  Good job, Ranker!

All Games     High-Confidence Games
  Number Correct Out of     Number Correct Out of
BPI TRP   BPI TRP
Total 234 253 484 Total 41 46 77
% Correct 48% 52% % Correct 53% 60%

 

The Ranker is Better Than ESPN — Feb 15 update

I’ve thought highly of The Ranker’s NCAA Basketball picks against the spread, and I’ve been itching to compare they’re accuracy against the predictions from other computer models.

I’m not the quickest draw when it comes to scraping the web for data, but I’ve begun comparing The Ranker’s predictions with those from ESPN’s BPI predictions.

I can only compare the picks for games that The Ranker made picks for.  I’m comparing all of The Ranker’s picks, as well as the subset of her picks that she was most confident about.

So far, The Ranker has done as well or better than ESPN’s BPI at picking against the spread on 9 out of 13 days.  Good job, Ranker!

All Games   High-Confidence Games
Date Number Correct Out of   Date Number Correct Out of
BPI TRP   BPI TRP
2/2 17 16 29 2/2 5 5 6
2/3 3 4 9 2/3 0 1 2
2/4 51 61 111 2/4 9 12 18
2/5 4 6 7 2/5 1 1 1
2/6 8 7 12 2/6 2 2 3
2/7 12 12 28 2/7 1 1 2
2/8 20 21 33 2/8 6 5 6
2/9 21 28 50 2/9 3 4 5
2/10 3 7 10 2/10 0 2 4
2/11 47 45 106 2/11 11 9 21
2/12 4 4 13 2/12 0 0 2
2/13 7 8 15 2/13 0 2 3
2/14 18 16 27 2/14 2 2 3
Total 215 235 450   Total 40 46 76
% Correct 48% 52%     % Correct 53% 61%  

The Ranker is Better Than ESPN — Feb 14 update

I’ve thought highly of The Ranker’s NCAA Basketball picks against the spread, and I’ve been itching to compare they’re accuracy against the predictions from other computer models.

I’m not the quickest draw when it comes to scraping the web for data, but I’ve begun comparing The Ranker’s predictions with those from ESPN’s BPI predictions.

I can only compare the picks for games that The Ranker made picks for.  I’m comparing all of The Ranker’s picks, as well as the subset of her picks that she was most confident about.

So far, The Ranker has done as well or better than ESPN’s BPI at picking against the spread on 10 out of 12 days.  Good job, Ranker!

All Games   High-Confidence Games
Date Number Correct Out of   Date Number Correct Out of
BPI TRP   BPI TRP
2/2 17 16 29 2/2 5 5 6
2/3 3 4 9 2/3 0 1 2
2/4 51 61 111 2/4 9 12 18
2/5 4 6 7 2/5 1 1 1
2/6 8 7 12 2/6 2 2 3
2/7 12 12 28 2/7 1 1 2
2/8 20 21 33 2/8 6 5 6
2/9 21 28 50 2/9 3 4 5
2/10 3 7 10 2/10 0 2 4
2/11 47 45 106 2/11 11 9 21
2/12 4 4 13 2/12 0 0 2
2/13 7 8 15 2/13 0 2 3
Total 197 219 423   Total 38 44 73
% Correct 47% 52%     % Correct 52% 60%  

 

Most Over/Under-rated Teams 2-13-17

OVERRATED

According to the rankings in the AP Poll, the Ranker says the following teams are overrated (in order of overratedness):

Team AP Rank TRP Rank
Maryland 23 55
Southern California 29 54
Kansas 3 19
Arizona 5 21
Baylor 4 17
Villanova 2 9
Oregon 7 13

UNDERRATED

According to the rankings in the AP Poll, the Ranker says the following teams are underrated (in order of underratedness):

Team AP Rank TRP Rank
Wichita St. 26 8
Oklahoma St. 34 23
Kentucky 13 4
Virginia 14 5
Florida 15 7
West Virginia 9 2
Cincinnati 18 11