The Ranker is a marvelous beast. She predicts a margin of victory for each FBS game. I make my picks against the spread by comparing her predicted margin of victory with the point spread for each game.
Since this is the Ranker’s first week in action, I’m not sure what the threshold should be be for identifying a “lock.” So I’ll somewhat arbitrarily use a difference of 10 points or more to call a pick a lock. In other words, I’m going to call it a lock when the difference between her predicted margin and the point spread is 10 or more points.
This week’s locks (with point spread and opponent):
- Navy +7 (@ Norte Dame)
- Georgia Tech +10.5 (@ North Carolina)
- Rice -4 (vs Florida Atlantic)
- SMU +3 (vs Memphis)
The Ranker likes 3 underdogs and two of them, Navy and Georgia Tech, are on the road. Hhmmm… I like the the Ranker’s boldness.
Three teams almost made the cut:
- Mississippi State +13.5 (vs Texas A&M)
- North Texas +20.5 (vs Louisiana Tech)
- Georgia Southern +27.5 (@ Mississippi)
Wow! The Ranker is loving the underdog this week! Upon closer inspection, her affection for the underdog isn’t comprehensive. Overall, she likes the favorite in 30 of this week’s 58 games.
Now that I’ve gone and singled out the Ranker’s most confident picks, going so far as to call them “locks,” let’s remember this is her first week going on record with her predictions. We’ll continually evaluate performance and re-train, as necessary, until we can declare defiantly and inarguably that nobody beats the Ranker!