NCAA Football Week 10 Locks

The Ranker is a marvelous beast. She predicts a margin of victory for each FBS game. I make my picks against the spread by comparing her predicted margin of victory with the point spread for each game.

Since this is the Ranker’s first week in action,  I’m not sure what the threshold should be be for identifying a “lock.”  So I’ll somewhat arbitrarily use a difference of 10 points or more to call a pick a lock. In other words, I’m going to call it a lock when the difference between her predicted margin and the point spread is 10 or more points. 

This week’s locks (with point spread and opponent):

  • Navy +7 (@ Norte Dame)
  • Georgia Tech +10.5 (@ North Carolina)
  • Rice -4 (vs Florida Atlantic)
  • SMU +3 (vs Memphis)

The Ranker likes 3 underdogs and two of them, Navy and Georgia Tech, are on the road. Hhmmm… I like the the Ranker’s boldness. 

Three teams almost made the cut:

  • Mississippi State +13.5 (vs Texas A&M)
  • North Texas  +20.5 (vs Louisiana Tech)
  • Georgia Southern  +27.5  (@ Mississippi)

Wow! The Ranker is loving the underdog this week! Upon closer inspection, her affection for the underdog isn’t comprehensive. Overall, she likes the favorite in 30 of this week’s 58 games. 

Now that I’ve gone and singled out the Ranker’s most confident picks, going so far as to call them “locks,”  let’s remember this is her first week going on record with her predictions. We’ll continually evaluate performance and re-train, as necessary, until we can declare defiantly and inarguably that nobody beats the Ranker!

NCAA Football (FBS) Week 10 Picks

Okay, it’s Week 10, and I finally have the first version of my NCAA Football game picking model finished and ready.  With yesterday and today’s games, I’m already 3-for-3, so I’m excited to see how the rest of the week’s picks pan out!

Away Team Home Team Favorite Pt Spread My Pick Correct?
Bowling Green Northern Ill. Northern Ill. 17 Northern Ill. Y
Western Mich. Ball State Western Mich. 17.5 Western Mich. Y
Toledo Akron Toledo 10 Toledo Y
Buffalo Ohio Ohio 20 Buffalo
Arkansas State Georgia State Arkansas State 3.5 Georgia State
Oklahoma Iowa State Oklahoma 20.5 Iowa State
UCLA Colorado Colorado 11.5 Colorado
Cent. Michigan Miami (Ohio) Cent. Michigan 4 Cent. Michigan
Temple Connecticut Temple 10 Temple
San Jose State Boise State Boise State 29 Boise State
Navy Notre Dame Notre Dame 7 Navy
Texas Texas Tech Texas 3.5 Texas
Texas A&M Mississippi St. Texas A&M 13.5 Mississippi St.
Air Force Army West Point Army West Point 1 Army West Point
Louisville Boston College Louisville 25 Boston College
Indiana Rutgers Indiana 14 Rutgers
Ga. Southern Mississippi Mississippi 27.5 Ga. Southern
Vanderbilt Auburn Auburn 25.5 Vanderbilt
Wisconsin Northwestern Wisconsin 7 Northwestern
Georgia Tech North Carolina North Carolina 10.5 Georgia Tech
Pittsburgh Miami (Fla.) Miami (Fla.) 3.5 Pittsburgh
UTSA Middle Tenn. Middle Tenn. 20.5 UTSA
Virginia Wake Forest Wake Forest 3 Wake Forest
Fresno State Colorado State Colorado State 15.5 Colorado State
BYU Cincinnati BYU 7.5 BYU
Virginia Tech Duke Virginia Tech 11 Virginia Tech
Florida Arkansas Florida 5.5 Florida
Syracuse Clemson Clemson 26 Clemson
Oklahoma State Kansas State Kansas State 3 Oklahoma State
Oregon State Stanford Stanford 14.5 Oregon State
Maryland Michigan Michigan 31 Michigan
TCU Baylor Baylor 7.5 Baylor
Massachusetts Troy Troy 20.5 Troy
Charlotte Southern Miss Southern Miss 19.5 Charlotte
Purdue Minnesota Minnesota 17 Minnesota
Florida Atlantic Rice Rice 4 Rice
Texas State Appalachian St. Appalachian St. 31.5 Appalachian St.
Missouri South Carolina South Carolina 7 Missouri
Memphis SMU Memphis 3 SMU
Arizona Washington St. Washington St. 17 Washington St.
Tulane UCF UCF 16.5 Tulane
Idaho La.-Lafayette La.-Lafayette 5.5 Idaho
South Alabama La.-Monroe South Alabama 13.5 La.-Monroe
Louisiana Tech North Texas Louisiana Tech 20.5 North Texas
FIU Western Ky. Western Ky. 29.5 FIU
Florida State NC State Florida State 5.5 NC State
Kansas West Virginia West Virginia 34.5 West Virginia
Marshall Old Dominion Old Dominion 11 Old Dominion
Hawaii San Diego State San Diego State 21 Hawaii
Oregon USC USC 17 Oregon
Iowa Penn State Penn State 7.5 Penn State
Georgia Kentucky Georgia 2.5 Kentucky
Alabama LSU Alabama 8.5 LSU
Nebraska Ohio State Ohio State 17 Ohio State
East Carolina Tulsa Tulsa 8 Tulsa
Utah State Wyoming Wyoming 5.5 Wyoming
Nevada New Mexico New Mexico 14.5 New Mexico
Washington California Washington 17 Washington