The Ranker is Better Than ESPN — 2-11-2018 Update

I’ve compared the results of using TheRankerPit.com’s team ratings and  ESPN’s BPI predictions to pick games against the spread.   The Ranker’s predictions simply compare the difference between each’s team’s overall rating to the point spread, adjusting for home court advantage.

I used the spreads posted on teamrankings.com.

Last season, The Ranker beat ESPN’s BPI in February, the only month I tracked.

  • TheRankerPit.com:  414-391, 51.4%
  • ESPN BPI:  376-429, 46.7%

This season has been rough, but apparently it’s been difficult for more than The Ranker.  Saturday’s result broke a 9-day streak of The Ranker beating ESPN.

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The Ranker is Better Than ESPN — 2-4-2018 Update

I’ve compared the results of using TheRankerPit.com’s team ratings and  ESPN’s BPI predictions to pick games against the spread.   The Ranker’s predictions simply compare the difference between each’s team’s overall rating to the point spread, adjusting for home court advantage.

I used the spreads posted on teamrankings.com.

Last season, The Ranker beat ESPN’s BPI in February, the only month I tracked.

  • TheRankerPit.com:  414-391, 51.4%
  • ESPN BPI:  376-429, 46.7%

This season has been rough, but apparently it’s been difficult for more than The Ranker.  The last full week of January was a particulary rough stretch, but TheRankerPit.com’s picks are still out-performing ESPN’s BPI overall.

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The Ranker is Better Than ESPN — 1-14-2018 Update

I’ve compared the results of using TheRankerPit.com’s team ratings and  ESPN’s BPI predictions to pick games against the spread.   The Ranker’s predictions simply compare the difference between each’s team’s overall rating to the point spread, adjusting for home court advantage.

I used the spreads posted on teamrankings.com.

Last season, The Ranker beat ESPN’s BPI in February, the only month I tracked.

  • TheRankerPit.com:  414-391, 51.4%
  • ESPN BPI:  376-429, 46.7%

This season has been rough, but apparently it’s been difficult for more than The Ranker.  TheRankerPit.com’s picks are still out-performing ESPN’s BPI.

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Picks 1-3-2018

I have identified several conditions that when they are met, The Ranker’s picks are significantly more accurate.

Yesterday, the Ranker was 4-5-1.  Unfortunately, yesterday’s picks didn’t get posted online.  Here are today’s picks that The Ranker has most confidence in:

Point spreads from teamrankings.com

Game Pick
Richmond vs Fordham Richmond +1.5
Clemson vs Boston College Clemson -5
Syracuse vs Wake Forest Syracuse +2
North Carolina vs Florida St. North Carolina +1.5
VCU vs Saint Joseph’s VCU +1
Illinois St. vs Drake Illinois St. +4
South Dakota St. vs North Dakota St. North Dakota St. +1
Kentucky vs LSU LSU +4.5
Oklahoma St. vs Oklahoma Oklahoma St. +9.5
Missouri vs South Carolina Missouri +2
Virginia vs Virginia Tech Virginia Tech +1.5
Miami (FL) vs Georgia Tech Miami (FL) -6
North Carolina St. vs Notre Dame Notre Dame -7

Top 0.2% – The Ranker Slays Bowl Picks

The Ranker’s entry in ESPN’s Capital One Bowl Mania pick’em competition (using confidence points) scores better than 99.8% of all entries!

The picks were based solely off of the team ratings from TheRankerPit.com. The higher the rating difference, the higher the confidence points assigned to that matchup.

Pretty impressive, given all of the intangibles at play in bowl games. My entry is ranked 695 out of 300,000+ total entries. Screenshot of my score:

Picks 1-2-2018

I have identified several conditions that when they are met, The Ranker’s picks are significantly more accurate.

Yesterday, the Ranker was 1-0.  Unfortunately, yesterday’s picks didn’t get posted online.  Here are today’s picks that The Ranker has most confidence in:

Point spreads from teamrankings.com

Game Pick
Drexel vs UNC Wilmington Drexel +2
Ohio vs Central Mich. Ohio +2
TCU vs Baylor TCU +1.5
Butler vs Xavier Butler +7
Auburn vs Tennessee Auburn +6
Indiana vs Wisconsin Indiana +6
William & Mary vs James Madison William & Mary +3
Florida vs Texas A&M Texas A&M -3
Arkansas vs Mississippi St. Arkansas -2
Texas Tech vs Kansas Texas Tech +7

The Ranker’s Bowl Game Picks

Bowl Game Picks Against the Spread (ATS)

(Odds from teamrankings.com, as of 12/12/17)

Picks based on overall team ratings

Bowl Matchup TheRankerPit.com Pick
North Texas vs Troy Troy  -6.5
Georgia State vs W Kentucky Georgia State  +6.5
Boise State vs Oregon Boise State  +7.5
Marshall vs Colorado St Marshall  +5.5
Middle Tenn vs Arkansas St Arkansas St  -3.5
Akron vs Fla Atlantic Akron  +22.5
LA Tech vs S Methodist LA Tech  +5
Temple vs Florida Intl Florida Intl  +7
UAB vs Ohio Ohio  -7.5
Central Mich vs Wyoming Central Mich  0
Texas Tech vs S Florida S Florida  -2.5
San Diego St vs Army Army  +7
App State vs Toledo App State  +7.5
Houston vs Fresno St Fresno St  +2.5
Utah vs W Virginia W Virginia  +7
Duke vs N Illinois N Illinois  +4.5
Kansas St vs UCLA UCLA  +2.5
S Mississippi vs Florida St S Mississippi  +15.5
Iowa vs Boston Col Iowa  -3
Arizona vs Purdue Purdue  +3.5
Texas vs Missouri Texas  +3
Virginia vs Navy Navy  -3.5
VA Tech vs Oklahoma St VA Tech  +4.5
Stanford vs TX Christian Stanford  +2.5
Wash State vs Michigan St Michigan St  +2.5
Wake Forest vs Texas A&M Wake Forest  -3
NC State vs Arizona St Arizona St  +6
Kentucky vs Northwestern Northwestern  -7
Utah State vs N Mex State Utah State  -4
USC vs Ohio State Ohio State  -7.5
Louisville vs Miss State Miss State  +6.5
Iowa State vs Memphis Iowa State  +3.5
Washington vs Penn State Penn State  -2
Wisconsin vs Miami (FL) Wisconsin  -6.5
Michigan vs S Carolina Michigan  -7.5
Central FL vs Auburn Central FL  +9.5
Notre Dame vs LSU Notre Dame  +3
Georgia vs Oklahoma Georgia  -2
Alabama vs Clemson Alabama  -2.5

 

 

Top 20 Bowl Games

Just to let you know I am going to count not the playoffs and these are not in order.

The New Mexico Bowl Marshall vs Colorado St. Marshall won 1 of their last 5 games. Colorado St. won 2 of their last 5 games. So their last five games were pretty tough like Colorado St. lost to three decent teams Air Force,Wyoming,and Boise St. and Marshall also lost to some decent teams (one of them I think is perty good FAU) they lost to FIU,FAU,UTSA,and Southern Miss. I think Colorado St. will win by 7 points 27-20.

The Frisco Bowl Louisiana Tech vs SMU. I think were gonna have a shout out here and really all I know about SMU is that they lost to some pretty good teams in close ones like TCU 56-36,Houston 22-35,UCF 24-31,Navy 43-40,and Memphis 45-66. Well I guess some of them were close. But anyways I don’t really have much to say so SMU wins 52-45.

Bahamas Bowl UAB vs Ohio. I got nothing to say but UAB wins 35-30.

Armed Forces Bowl San Diego St. vs Army. I say Army wins 28-24.

The Hawai’i Bowl Fresno St. vs Houston. I think this is one of the best Bowl games of them all. I think both teams are great both teams have had tough games like Fresno St. they lost to Alabama 41-10,they lost to Washington 48-16,they lost to UNLV 26-16, they only beat BYU by 7, they only beat Wyoming by three, and they lost to Boise St. in their rematch with Boise St. 17-14. Then Houston well they haven’t had had the best of games they lost to Tulsa 45-17, and they lost to Tulane 20-17. So I think Fresno St. will win because Houston’s losses are just to bad so yeah the Bulldogs win 31-24.

The Pin Stripe Bowl Iowa vs Boston College. First the poor losses from these teams. Iowa really only has one against Purdue 24-15 the other ones weren’t that bad one of them was against Penn St. who had to get a game winning touchdown at the end of the game the score was 21-19. Boston College doesn’t have any bad losses. Now here’s a fact Boston College have won five of their last six games this season and their loss was to NC.St. 17-14. I think Boston College is hot right now and they will win 28-17.

The Texas Outdoors Bowl Texas vs Missouri. I think this game will be won by Missouri if they play like well all the games they won in they beat Missouri St. in week 1 72-43,then they had a five game losing streak and then now starting in week 8 they started a six game winning streak they beat Idaho 68-21,then they beat Connecticut 52-12,they beat Florida 45-16,they beat Tennessee 50-17,they beat Vanderbilt 45-17,they beat Vanderbilt 45-17,and they beat Arkansas 48-45. So once again I’m gonna pick the hot team Missouri and they will win big 48-28.

The Military Bowl Virginia at Navy. I think Navy will win 24-21.

The Camping World Bowl Virginia Tech vs Oklahoma St. I say Virginia Tech wins 49-42.

The Alamo Bowl Stanford vs TCU. I think TCU is overrated like who did they beet? I know! Oklahoma St.!…That’s it so Stanford wins with Bryce Love 31-24.

The Holiday Bowl Washington St. vs Michigan St. Okay now I’m make some short picks. So I think Washington St. is good but I don’t think their defense is good en of to beat Michigan St. So I think the team with the better defense will do it so Michigan St. wins 35-26.

The Belk Bowl Wake Forest vs Texas A&M. I think we’ll have a defensive battle here. Wake Forest allowing  about 23 points a game and Texas A&M allows about 26 points a game.Then there’s offense and Texas A&M scores about 30 points a game and Wake Forest scores about 35 points a game. So I think Wake Forest is just a bit better and will win 30-28 with a game winning field goal with around 3:22 left on the clock in the 4th quarter.

The Cotton Bowl USC vs Ohio St. I’ll stay with my answer from Committee Thoughts Ohio St. wins 38-37.

The Tax Slayer Bowl Louisville vs Mississippi St. I think this one will go to the Louisville Cardinals and my main reason is because Louisville has Lamar Jackson who won the Heisman Trophy last and was a finalist this year and Mississippi St.’s Nick Fitzgerald is an amazing player and he got a season ending injury against Ole Miss. So the Cardinals win 42-21.

The Liberty Bowl Iowa St. vs Memphis. I think we’re gonna have a shootout because Memphis scores about 56 points a game and allows about 31 points a game and Iowa St. scores about 35 points a game and allows about 27 points a game. So think Iowa St.’s defense isn’t good en of to stop Memphis’s offense and Memphis will win 52-45.

The Fiesta Bowl Washington vs Penn St. Here I just think Penn St. is just better overall and will win 28-21.

The Orange Bowl Wisconsin vs Miami (FL). I think Miami (FL) will keep it close by creating turnovers but in the end Wisconsin wins 31-23.

The Outback Bowl Michigan vs South Carolina. Here I think it will be a defensive battle and South Carolina will end up winning because they know how to score a good amount of points so they win 20-10.

The Peach Bowl UCF vs Auburn. I say Auburn wins because they have such good run defense and will win 30-24.

The Citrus Bowl Notre Dame vs LSU. I think we’re gonna have another defensive battle and I think LSU wins because I just think their defense is better so they win 17-14.     

The Rose Bowl

As I said in Committee Thoughts Georgia will win this one by 3 points in a pretty high scoring game. I think if Oklahoma wins this game they will lose in the championship no matter who they play they will lose. I’m not saying that Oklahoma doesn’t deserve to be in the playoffs I’m saying their defense is just not good en of for a championship game. But at the same time it seems like Oklahoma is the only team that is elite on any side of the ball and by that I mean Oklahoma is the only team with an elite offense and no team really has an elite defense. Now there are great defenses out there like Georgia,Clemson, Alabama, Michigan St., NC.St., LSU, Washington, Stanford,Penn St., and Auburn of course all of those teams have great defenses.

Oklahoma though well they’re defense is a different story they just allow to many points and like they say defense wins championships and offense wins games there’s a difference. An offense will win in the Big 12 and a defense will win other games and Oklahoma doesn’t quite have that great defense that they need to win a championship game like Alabama,Clemson,and Georgia do. If I rate all the defenses in the playoffs on the scale of 1 to 10 (1 means they got a terrible defense and ten means they got an elite defense)  I give Clemson an 8, Oklahoma a 5, Georgia a 9, and Alabama an 8.

So I think Georgia wins because of that great defense that they have and a good en of offense to keep scoring with Sony Michelle,Nick Chub,and Jake Fromm. But Oklahoma will keep it close because of that amazing offense they have. So my answer from Committee Thoughts will stay the same Georgia will win 45-42.

Committee Thoughts

I like some of the decisions the committee made this week. I especially like the bowl games they made the Sugar Bowl No. 1 Clemson vs No. 4 Alabama,the Rose Bowl No. 3 Georgia vs No. 2 Oklahoma,the Cotton Bowl No. 8 USC vs No. 5 Ohio St.,the Fiesta Bowl No. 11 Washington vs No. 9 Penn St.,the Orange Bowl No. 6 Wisconsin vs No. 10 Miami (FL),and the Peach Bowl No. 7 Auburn vs No. 12 UCF.

I think Alabama in the playoff was the right decision instead of the two loss team Ohio St.,because Ohio St. has two 15 plus losses against Oklahoma 31-16 and lost to 7-5 Iowa 55-24. Though they had great wins against Penn St. 39-38,Michigan St. 48-3,and Wisconsin 27-21 it wasn’t en-of to get them in the playoffs. I think the main three reasons are  1. having two 15 plus losses 2. losing to a 7-5 team (Iowa) by 31 points 3. Plus just their performance sometimes like the first three quarters against Penn St.,the first quarter against Michigan,and the whole game against Iowa.

Now I’m gonna make some quick predictions on the New Years Six Bowl Games. The Sugar bowl Alabama vs Clemson I say Alabama wins 27-24,The Rose Bowl Georgia vs Oklahoma I say Georgia wins 45-42,The Cotton Bowl Ohio St. vs USC Ohio St. wins 35-34, The Fiesta Bowl Penn St. vs Washington I say Penn St. wins 28-21,The Orange Bowl Wisconsin vs Miami (FL) Wisconsin wins 31-23,and the Peach Bowl Auburn vs UCF I think Auburn will win 30-24.