College Football Week 3 Picks by the Computer Models

Week 3 picks according to team ratings from the following computer models:

Picks are Against the Spread.  Odds are from teamrankings.com.

College Football Week 3 Picks

Visiting TeamHome TeamHome Team OddsSagarin PickFPI PickTRP PickUnanimous
New MexicoBoise State-14.5Boise StateBoise StateNew Mexico----
U MassTemple-14.5TempleU MassTemple----
IllinoisS Florida-17IllinoisIllinoisIllinoisUNANIMOUS
ArizonaTX El Paso22.5TX El PasoTX El PasoTX El PasoUNANIMOUS
LA LafayetteTexas A&M-24Texas A&MLA LafayetteLA Lafayette----
KansasOhio-7.5OhioOhioKansas----
N IllinoisNebraska-14N IllinoisNebraskaNebraska----
Oklahoma StPittsburgh13.5PittsburghPittsburghPittsburghUNANIMOUS
ConnecticutVirginia-10.5VirginiaVirginiaVirginiaUNANIMOUS
Air ForceMichigan-24Air ForceAir ForceAir ForceUNANIMOUS
Iowa StateAkron10Iowa StateIowa StateIowa StateUNANIMOUS
UCLAMemphis3MemphisUCLAMemphis----
BaylorDuke-14DukeBaylorDuke----
Coastal CarUAB1.5UABUABCoastal Car----
Utah StateWake Forest-13.5Wake ForestWake ForestWake ForestUNANIMOUS
Notre DameBoston Col13.5Notre DameNotre DameNotre DameUNANIMOUS
WisconsinBYU13WisconsinWisconsinWisconsinUNANIMOUS
S MethodistTX Christian-19TX ChristianTX ChristianS Methodist----
Central MichSyracuse-10SyracuseSyracuseCentral Mich----
TennesseeFlorida-4.5TennesseeTennesseeTennesseeUNANIMOUS
VA TechE Carolina21VA TechE CarolinaVA Tech----
Middle TennMinnesota-9MinnesotaMinnesotaMiddle Tenn----
North TexasIowa-21.5IowaNorth TexasIowa----
N CarolinaOld Dominion10Old DominionN CarolinaOld Dominion----
ClemsonLouisville3.5ClemsonClemsonClemsonUNANIMOUS
PurdueMissouri-7.5PurdueMissouriPurdue----
ArmyOhio State-30Ohio StateArmyArmy----
Oregon StWash State-21Wash StateWash StateOregon St----
TulaneOklahoma-35OklahomaTulaneOklahoma----
Kent StateMarshall-14.5MarshallKent StateKent State----
S MississippiLA Monroe6.5LA MonroeLA MonroeLA MonroeUNANIMOUS
LA TechW Kentucky-7W KentuckyLA TechW Kentucky----
Colorado StAlabama-28.5Colorado StAlabamaColorado St----
TulsaToledo-9.5ToledoTulsaTulsa----
IdahoW Michigan-20.5W MichiganIdahoW Michigan----
OregonWyoming14OregonOregonOregonUNANIMOUS
LSUMiss State7Miss StateMiss StateMiss StateUNANIMOUS
App StateTexas State23Texas StateTexas StateApp State----
Kansas StVanderbilt3.5Kansas StKansas StVanderbilt----
Bowling GrnNorthwestern-21.5Bowling GrnNorthwesternBowling Grn----
KentuckyS Carolina-6S CarolinaS CarolinaKentucky----
Georgia StatePenn State-37Penn StatePenn StatePenn StateUNANIMOUS
RiceHouston-22.5HoustonRiceHouston----
TroyN Mex State7N Mex StateN Mex StateN Mex StateUNANIMOUS
CincinnatiMiami (OH)-5CincinnatiCincinnatiCincinnatiUNANIMOUS
Arizona StTexas Tech-7.5Texas TechTexas TechArizona St----
TexasUSC-17TexasTexasUSC----
Fresno StWashington-33Fresno StFresno StWashington----
San Jose StUtah-26UtahSan Jose StUtah----
MississippiCalifornia3.5CaliforniaCaliforniaCaliforniaUNANIMOUS
StanfordSan Diego St9StanfordStanfordStanfordUNANIMOUS

The Ranker is Better Than ESPN — Mar 11 update

I’v compared The Ranker’s predictions with those from ESPN’s BPI predictions.  I started tracking the comparison on February 2nd.  I noticed an error in my March calculations, so this comparison is limited to February’s games.  I will have to go back and re-run the numbers for March to continue the appropriate comparison.

I can only compare the picks for games that The Ranker made picks for.  I use teamrankings.com to get my point spreads, so my picks are limited to the games that are posted there.

I am quite pleased with The Ranker’s performance against ESPN’s BPI predictions.  The Ranker performed as well or better than ESPN’s BPI at picking against the spread on 16 out of 24 days.  Good job, Ranker!

All Games   High-Confidence Games
Date Number Correct Out of   Date Number Correct Out of
BPI TRP   BPI TRP
2/2 17 16 29 2/2 5 5 6
2/3 3 4 9 2/3 0 1 2
2/4 51 61 111 2/4 9 12 18
2/5 4 6 7 2/5 1 1 1
2/6 8 7 12 2/6 2 2 3
2/7 12 12 28 2/7 1 1 2
2/8 20 21 33 2/8 6 5 6
2/9 21 28 50 2/9 3 4 5
2/10 3 7 10 2/10 0 2 4
2/11 47 45 106 2/11 11 9 21
2/12 4 4 13 2/12 0 0 2
2/13 7 8 15 2/13 0 2 3
2/14 18 16 27 2/14 2 2 3
2/15 19 18 34 2/15 1 0 1
2/16 20 19 38 2/16 1 3 5
2/17 4 7 14 2/17 1 2 6
2/20 4 4 8 2/20 0 0 0
2/21 14 13 29 2/21 3 4 10
2/22 11 16 37 2/22 2 5 9
2/23 19 24 42 2/23 4 2 6
2/24 7 10 16 2/24 2 6 7
2/25 42 46 96 2/25 11 12 25
2/27 13 9 18 2/27 3 3 4
2/28 8 13 23 2/28 3 3 5

The Ranker is Better Than ESPN — Mar 3 update

I’ve thought highly of The Ranker’s NCAA Basketball picks against the spread, and I’ve been itching to compare they’re accuracy against the predictions from other computer models.

I’m not the quickest draw when it comes to scraping the web for data, but I’ve begun comparing The Ranker’s predictions with those from ESPN’s BPI predictions.

I can only compare the picks for games that The Ranker made picks for.  I’m comparing all of The Ranker’s picks, as well as the subset of her picks that she was most confident about.

So far, The Ranker has done as well or better than ESPN’s BPI at picking against the spread on 18 out of 26 days.  Good job, Ranker!

All Games     High-Confidence Games
  Number Correct Out of     Number Correct Out of
ESPN Ranker   ESPN Ranker
Total 405 445 878 Total 75 90 162
% Correct 46% 51% % Correct 46% 56%

 

Picks 3-3-2017

I have identified several conditions that when they are met, The Ranker’s picks are significantly more accurate.

Yesterday, the Ranker was 2-1.  Unfortunately, yesterday’s picks didn’t get posted online.  Here are today’s picks that The Ranker has most confidence in:

  • Evansville +10.5 (@ Illinois State)
  • Milwaukee +1.5 (@ Detroit)
  • Central Michigan +10.5 (@ Western Michigan)
  • Niagra +13.5 (@Monmouth)
  • Missouri State +2.5 (@Northern Iowa)
  • Murray State +3 (@UT Martin)

Also, there are certain teams whose games The Ranker picks especially well (at least 70% correctly).  Four of those teams play tonight.  The teams for which The Ranker is particularly tuned in are in bold:

  • Yale -10 (vs Cornell)

Picks 3-1-2017

I have identified several conditions that when they are met, The Ranker’s picks are significantly more accurate.

After a necessary hiatus for re-training, The Ranker is ready to make picks again.  Here are today’s picks that The Ranker has most confidence in:

  • Michigan +1 (@ Northwestern)
  • Vermont -24.5 (vs Maine)
  • Massachusetts +2.5 (vs Richmond)
  • Air Force +13.5 (@San Diego State)

Also, there are certain teams whose games The Ranker picks especially well (at least 70% correctly).  Four of those teams play tonight.  The teams for which The Ranker is particularly tuned in are in bold:

  • USC -12 (vs Washington State)

The Ranker is Better Than ESPN — Feb 18 update

I’ve thought highly of The Ranker’s NCAA Basketball picks against the spread, and I’ve been itching to compare they’re accuracy against the predictions from other computer models.

I’m not the quickest draw when it comes to scraping the web for data, but I’ve begun comparing The Ranker’s predictions with those from ESPN’s BPI predictions.

I can only compare the picks for games that The Ranker made picks for.  I’m comparing all of The Ranker’s picks, as well as the subset of her picks that she was most confident about.

So far, The Ranker has done as well or better than ESPN’s BPI at picking against the spread on 10 out of 16 days.  Good job, Ranker!

All Games     High-Confidence Games
  Number Correct Out of     Number Correct Out of
BPI TRP   BPI TRP
Total 258 279 536 Total 43 51 88
% Correct 48% 52% % Correct 49% 58%

 

Picks 2-17-2017

I have identified several conditions that when they are met, The Ranker’s picks are significantly more accurate.  Here are today’s picks that The Ranker has most confidence in:

  • Cornell +1.5 (@ Dartmouth)
  • Ill.-Chicago +1 (@ Detroit)
  • Valparaiso +1.5 (@ Oakland)
  • Yale +3 (vs Princeton)
  • Quinnipiac +1 (vs Fairfield)
  • California -2.5 (@ Stanford)

Also, there are certain teams whose games The Ranker picks especially well (at least 70% correctly).  Four of those teams play tonight.  The teams for which The Ranker is particularly tuned in are in bold:

  • Ill.-Chicago +1 (@ Detroit)
  • Harvard -8 (vs Columbia)
  • Quinnipiac +1 (vs Fairfield)
  • California -2.5 (@ Stanford)

Picks 2-16-2017

I have identified several conditions that when they are met, The Ranker’s picks are significantly more accurate.  Here are today’s picks that The Ranker has most confidence in:

  • Charleston +1 (@ Hofstra)
  • Northern Kentucky Pick (@ Cleveland State)
  • Gonzaga -21.5 (vs San Francisco)
  • UC Davis +3.5 (@ Long Beach State)
  • UC Riverside Pick (vs Cal St. Fullerton)

Also, I’ve just noticed that there are certain teams whose games The Ranker picks especially well (at least 70% correctly).  Five of those teams play tonight.  The teams for which The Ranker has an uncanny sense for are in bold:

  • Texas A&M +3.5 (@ Vanderbilt)
  • Wright State -5 (@ Youngstown State)
  • Gonzaga -21.5 (vs San Francisco)
  • Northern Colorado +13 (@ Weber State)
  • Hawaii -5.5 (@ UC Santa Barbara)

The Ranker is Better Than ESPN — Feb 16 update

I’ve thought highly of The Ranker’s NCAA Basketball picks against the spread, and I’ve been itching to compare they’re accuracy against the predictions from other computer models.

I’m not the quickest draw when it comes to scraping the web for data, but I’ve begun comparing The Ranker’s predictions with those from ESPN’s BPI predictions.

I can only compare the picks for games that The Ranker made picks for.  I’m comparing all of The Ranker’s picks, as well as the subset of her picks that she was most confident about.

So far, The Ranker has done as well or better than ESPN’s BPI at picking against the spread on 9 out of 14 days.  Good job, Ranker!

All Games     High-Confidence Games
  Number Correct Out of     Number Correct Out of
BPI TRP   BPI TRP
Total 234 253 484 Total 41 46 77
% Correct 48% 52% % Correct 53% 60%